of seeing aurora
Checking the skies
Combining aurora activity, cloud cover and darkness for your selected location.
An indicative FunIceland estimate for naked-eye viewing from an open, dark location. Sightings are never guaranteed.
Your chances through the night
Choose a forecast time to see the estimated chance of a sighting.
Live forecasts are being loaded.
Times are UTC, the same as Iceland time. Each percentage describes one forecast time, not the chance across an entire night. Longer-range estimates are less certain.
Where are the best chances?
Best upcoming forecast time tonight at each named reference point. Conditions vary within every region.
Forecast details: Kp, cloud cover and solar wind
Readings and forecasts for the selected place and time.
What does the percentage mean?
An indicative estimate of seeing aurora at the selected place and forecast time, away from bright artificial light.
How the estimate is calculated
For the short term, we use NOAA's OVATION aurora model near the selected location, including a distance-weighted allowance for aurora towards the horizon. For later forecast times, we use a Kp-based Iceland outlook. We then reduce the estimate for forecast cloud cover and twilight. The method is an approximation and has not been statistically calibrated against local sightings. Values are rounded to the nearest 5% and capped at 90%; this is not a guarantee or an official NOAA probability.
The Icelandic Met Office supplies total cloud cover at a reference forecast point. This includes high cloud, which can be thin enough for bright aurora to show through. We do not label total cloud as low or mid-level blocking cloud. No percentage is shown when the required activity or cloud data are missing or out of date.
NOAA's short-term model is valid only around its published forecast time; it is not extended over the next three nights. The nightly outlook shows the best individual upcoming forecast time, not the probability of at least one sighting during the whole night. Forecast time steps can become less frequent further ahead.
Data sources and updates
Aurora and geomagnetic data: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. Cloud and weather forecasts: Icelandic Met Office. Source issue and retrieval times appear in Forecast details. Shared server caches refresh NOAA approximately every 5 minutes and weather approximately every 30 minutes. Opening this page does not trigger a separate upstream request for every visitor.
Based on forecasts from the Icelandic Met Office; the visibility estimates are calculated by FunIceland. Met Office data terms.
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